Author: Joshua Spivak

The downballot roll-off effect in action

Analysis

3 Mar, 2025

The downballot roll-off effect in action

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Overview The November 2024 election ballot in Alameda County saw an unusual occurrence: overlapping recalls of the Alameda district attorney and the Oakland mayor. Media coverage of these recalls portrayed those separate county and city contest results as being very similar. But a more detailed look shows a noted discrepancy in the vote totals among the Oakland voters who could cast ballots for both officials. Price did significantly better in Oakland than Thao, mainly because a significant number of the pro-Price voters did not also cast a ballot in the mayoral recall. This is probably explained at least in part...

The path to recall in Los Angeles is easier than you think

Opinion

31 Jan, 2025

The path to recall in Los Angeles is easier than you think

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Overview The Los Angeles fires have led to recall threats against state and local elected officials, most prominent among them Governor Gavin Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass. California’s voters have a good understanding of what a gubernatorial recall looks like, but there has been confusion about what a recall against Bass would entail. Thanks to the state legislature’s controversial 2022 revision to the recall law for localities, there is a mistaken belief that an L.A. recall would be a lengthy and expensive process, which would end without the voters choosing the mayoral replacement.[1] That indeed was true in the...

Takeaways from California’s recent local recalls

Uncategorized

25 Nov, 2024

Takeaways from California’s recent local recalls

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Overview There are two takeaways from this year’s general election results for the contests involving Los Angeles District Attorney George Gascón, Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price, and Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao. Combined with the recall of San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin, these contests are a clear voter rejection of sentencing reform and progressive prosecutors. And obvious flaws in recent changes to recall laws at the state and local level are now causing headaches for local officials struggling to apply the tangled new procedures to these contests. The results show that attempts by elected officials to discourage recalls failed,...

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